Around 160,000 Australians would lose access to the National Disability Insurance Scheme under a sweeping overhaul of eligibility rules unveiled by Health and NDIS Minister Mark Butler, who says the changes are essential to rein in the soaring cost of the $50 billion program.
In a major address to the National Press Club just three weeks before the federal budget Butler outlined a suite of cost‑saving measures aimed at restoring the scheme to “sustainable levels.” Without intervention, the NDIS is forecast to blow out to $70 billion a year by 2030. The government now expects to reduce that figure to about $55 billion.
Central to the overhaul is a shift away from diagnosis‑based entry. Instead, “standardised” functional assessments would determine who qualifies for support. Butler said the goal is to “get away from the diagnosis gateway and return the scheme back to a question of functional capacity.”
While the exact criteria are still being developed, early modelling shows the number of participants would fall from the current 760,000 to around 600,000 by the end of the decade 300,000 fewer than existing projections.
The government also plans to curb the rapidly rising cost of social and community participation supports, which Butler said have reached $12 billion this year alone.
The reforms mark one of the most significant shifts in the scheme’s history, setting the stage for intense debate over fairness, sustainability and the future of disability support in Australia.
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