Analysts Warn Tigray Power Shift Could Trigger New Conflict in Ethiopia

Moves by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to reassert control over Ethiopia’s Tigray region have raised fears of a renewed and potentially devastating conflict with the federal government, analysts said on Wednesday.

The TPLF, which fought a brutal two‑year war against federal forces between 2020 and 2022 a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives had been sidelined under a peace agreement that installed an interim administration in Tigray. But with key elements of the deal still unresolved, the party’s old guard has begun reclaiming political authority.

Last month, the TPLF reinstated the regional parliament that had been dissolved under the peace accord. On Tuesday, party leader Debretsion Gebremichael was elected to head the restored body, according to deputy leader Amanuel Assefa, who declared that “the interim administration no longer exists.”

Experts say the move risks reigniting tensions with Addis Ababa. Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College, described the situation as “extremely worrying,” noting that it remains unclear whether the development will lead to renewed negotiations or confrontation. He suggested the TPLF may be attempting to strengthen its bargaining position within Ethiopia’s federal system.

The federal government has not yet commented on the implications of the TPLF’s actions.

Despite its long‑standing influence the party effectively ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades the TPLF was banned as a political organization last year. Analysts warn that the current political maneuvering could easily spiral into another round of violence. Abel Abate Demissie of Chatham House said the situation could “easily lead to a disastrous conflict.”

Tensions escalated further on Tuesday when Ethiopia accused the Sudanese army of financing TPLF “mercenaries,” a claim Sudan denied.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people in Tigray remain displaced from the 2020–2022 war, and the region continues to face severe financial strain after federal subsidies were cut.