UN Warns Al Shabab Remains the Most Urgent Threat to Somalia and Kenya

A new United Nations report warns that Al Shabab continues to pose the most immediate danger to peace and stability in Somalia and across the wider region, with Kenya facing particularly high risks.

The expert panel found that despite years of military pressure from Somali forces and international partners, the Al Qaeda affiliated group retains the capacity to launch complex and deadly attacks. The report notes that the threat extends beyond violence, pointing to Al Shabab’s entrenched extortion networks, forced recruitment and a highly effective propaganda operation.

The group has demonstrated its reach even in Mogadishu, where it attempted to assassinate Somalia’s president on March 18. The experts said these capabilities show no sign of weakening.

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia through December 31, 2026. The mission currently fields 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers.

The report highlights that Al Shabab also poses a serious threat to Kenya. The group has carried out attacks ranging from improvised explosive devices targeting security forces to assaults on infrastructure, kidnappings, home invasions and livestock theft. According to the panel, Al Shabab has averaged about six attacks per month in Kenya this year, mainly in Mandera and Lamu counties near the Somali border.

The experts said Al Shabab’s long term objective remains unchanged. The group seeks to topple Somalia’s government, expel foreign forces and create a Greater Somalia that unites ethnic Somali populations across East Africa under strict Islamic rule.

The panel also examined the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. It reported that ISIL Somalia has recruited fighters from around the world, with most coming from East Africa. By the end of 2024, the group had more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60 percent of them foreign nationals.

Although smaller and less well funded than Al Shabab, the experts warned that ISIL Somalia’s growth represents a significant and rising threat to stability in Somalia and the region.