UN Report Warns Al Shabab Remains the Most Immediate Threat in Somalia and Kenya

A newly released United Nations report warns that Al Shabab continues to pose the most urgent threat to peace and stability in Somalia and across the region, with Kenya facing particularly high risks.

According to the expert panel, years of military pressure from Somali forces and international partners have not weakened the group’s ability to launch complex and asymmetric attacks. The report highlights that Al Shabab remains capable of striking even in heavily secured areas, including Mogadishu, where it attempted to assassinate Somalia’s president on March 18.

The threat extends far beyond violence. The experts point to the group’s entrenched extortion networks, forced recruitment and a sophisticated propaganda machine that helps sustain its influence.

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia through December 31, 2026. The mission currently fields 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers.

The report also underscores the danger Al Shabab poses to Kenya. The group has carried out a range of attacks, from improvised explosive devices targeting security forces to assaults on infrastructure, kidnappings, home invasions and livestock theft. This year alone, Al Shabab has averaged about six attacks per month in Kenya, mainly in Mandera and Lamu counties along the Somali border.

The experts say Al Shabab’s long term objective remains unchanged. The group seeks to overthrow Somalia’s government, expel foreign forces and create a Greater Somalia that unites ethnic Somali populations across East Africa under strict Islamic rule.

The panel also examined the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. It found that ISIL Somalia has recruited fighters from around the world, with most coming from East Africa. By the end of 2024, the group had more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60 percent of them foreign nationals.

Although smaller and less well funded than Al Shabab, the experts warn that ISIL Somalia’s expansion represents a growing threat to stability in Somalia and the wider region.