Tensions Rise in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region: Fears of Renewed Conflict Loom

More than two years after a peace deal brought an end to the devastating war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, escalating tensions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have ignited fears of renewed violence. The conflict, which resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths, remains a haunting memory, and the possibility of a resurgence looms large.

The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades, saw its influence wane following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018. Tensions escalated into armed conflict in November 2020 when Abiy dispatched troops to Tigray, accusing TPLF forces of attacking federal army camps. This sparked a brutal two-year war involving Tigrayan rebels, government forces, and Eritrean troops, culminating in the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which established a fragile peace.

Under the agreement, a new interim administration was formed in Tigray, led by TPLF veteran Getachew Reda but under the oversight of the federal government. However, recent months have seen divisions emerge between Getachew and TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael. Getachew faces mounting criticism for delays in executing the peace deal, particularly concerning the expulsion of Eritrean forces and the repatriation of over a million displaced individuals.

The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), previously neutral in the internal TPLF conflict, have become embroiled in the power struggle. In January, a dissident faction within the TDF accused Getachew’s administration of betraying “the Tigrayan people’s national interest,” an allegation that prompted Getachew to label their actions as a “coup d’etat.”

In early March, tensions escalated further when Getachew attempted to suspend three TDF generals, accusing Debretsion’s faction of a power grab. This week, Debretsion’s forces seized control of key municipalities, including Mekele, the state capital, and Adigrat, placing their own mayors in positions of authority.

As these developments unfold, the specter of renewed conflict raises urgent questions about the stability of the Tigray region and the future of peace in Ethiopia. The international community watches closely, concerned that the fragile gains made since the peace agreement may be at risk once again.