Portugal’s Election Campaign Ends as Prime Minister Looks to Win but Faces Uncertain Stability

Portugal’s general election campaign concludes on Friday, with Prime Minister Luis Montenegro expected to secure a victory. However, there are no guarantees that he will be able to form a more stable government amid mounting political challenges.

According to a recent poll by the Portuguese Catholic University, published by local media, Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition is projected to win about 34 percent of the vote, leading the Socialist Party (PS), which is forecasted to take around 26 percent. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega (“Enough”) party is poised to secure approximately 19 percent, similar to its share in the March 2024 elections, solidifying its position as Portugal’s third-largest party and potential kingmaker.

Montenegro, a 52-year-old lawyer, faces the possibility of leading yet another minority government, caught between the PS, which governed from 2015 to 2024, and Chega, with which he has refused to form a coalition. “People are fed up with elections, and people want stability,” Montenegro said during a final rally in Lisbon, urging voters to grant him a stronger mandate this time.

This Sunday’s vote marks Portugal’s third in just over three years. The election was called after Montenegro lost a confidence vote in parliament following allegations of conflicts of interest related to his consulting firm’s dealings. Political analyst Paula Espirito Santo told AFP that “staying in power would already be a good result” for Montenegro, who took a “calculated risk” to try and strengthen his parliamentary position.

Polls suggest that an outright majority for Montenegro’s coalition is unlikely, but he may seek support from the Liberal Initiative party, which is projected to receive about 6.4 percent of the vote.

On the opposition side, PS candidate Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, accused Montenegro of calling the elections “to avoid explaining himself” regarding his consultancy firm to a parliamentary inquiry. “We need a change, a prudent change that will guarantee political stability,” Santos said at a final rally in Lisbon, emphasizing the need for stability that Montenegro’s leadership no longer appears capable of providing.

Amid concerns over ongoing instability and voter fatigue, analysts and citizens alike criticized a political class perceived as out of touch with the electorate, with many voters unenthusiastic about the prospect of yet another election.