Narrow Path Ahead for Dutton as Election Approaches, but No Room for Complacency

As the federal election draws near, candidates, campaigners, and pollsters agree on one thing: the road to victory for Peter Dutton is becoming increasingly difficult compared to earlier in the year. Yet, with memories of Scott Morrison’s unexpected 2019 victory still fresh, no one is ready to declare the race over.

One major obstacle is the so-called “chaos factor” the unpredictable splintering of voters towards third parties and with several days remaining, even millions of Australians who have already voted could still sway the outcome. When analysts combine all the latest polls, leader movements, targeted advertising, and campaign messaging, a clearer picture emerges that favors Anthony Albanese.

Both sides largely agree that Dutton’s primary goal isn’t necessarily to secure a majority government despite his public insistence but rather to gain enough seats, around eight to ten, to push Labor into a minority position. On a strong day, if the Coalition manages to secure more than a dozen seats, a minority government could be within reach, or even a majority if they gain around 20. Conversely, if polls continue to favor Labor, the Coalition could lose as many as ten seats, including Dutton’s own.

This situation leaves many opposition figures feeling dejected and frustrated, while Labor supporters are increasingly confident, if not outright jubilant. Still, all parties acknowledge that surprises and unexpected developments could emerge in various parts of the country, defying the national trend.

Dutton’s best chance to make gains is arguably in Melbourne, where Labor’s hold on most seats is under pressure. Two months ago, polls indicated a swing of more than 5 percent against Labor, threatening losses across the city. Currently, experts suggest the swing has narrowed to around 2 or 3 percent, with the “Allan factor” referring to Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity still weighing on Labor’s vote. However, some analysts believe that voter dissatisfaction with Dutton might be balancing out the local challenges for Labor, keeping the race unpredictable until the final votes are tallied.