Two months ago, Kamala Harris was hailed as the Democratic presidential nominee in a jubilant national convention held in Chicago.
For the thousands of parties faithful present, Harris was seen as the political savior capable of uniting the party and delivering victory against a resurging Donald Trump, replacing the 81-year-old incumbent, President Joe Biden, who had struggled to galvanize support.
Yet, beneath the hopeful atmosphere of the convention, senior Democratic strategists were privately expressing concerns about Harris’s ability to secure a path to victory. These fears are proving prescient as election day looms larger and anxieties within the party grow. Despite Harris’s early momentum and her initial surge in the polls—which placed her in a stronger position than Biden against Trump—her rise appears to have primarily rallied voters already inclined to vote Democratic. The challenge remains: she needs to reach beyond the core Democratic base and hold together the delicate coalition that propelled Biden to victory in 2020.
Recent polling indicates the presidential race has tightened significantly, now appearing deadlocked. What was once a comfortable lead for Harris has dwindled, especially in the vital “blue wall” states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—that represent her clearest route to victory. Trump’s gains in these states, coupled with an increased appeal to Black and Latino voters, pose significant challenges for the Harris campaign. Although polls still show a neck-and-neck race in the key swing states, the results are within the margin of error, suggesting the outcome could swing in either direction.
The tone of Harris’s campaign has also shifted notably as election day draws closer. Initially, she approached her Republican opponent with a dismissive humor, describing Trump as an “unserious man” and “weird” during her convention speech. In recent days, however, her rhetoric has become significantly darker. Harris now refers to Trump as a “fascist” and describes him as “increasingly unhinged and unstable.” Her campaign’s original message of bringing “joy” has transformed into one that centers on fear—warning voters of the perceived dangers of a second Trump term.
Despite her efforts, Harris’s struggle is complicated by the challenge of translating potential popular vote success into electoral college victory. While she may be on track to win the popular vote, she must also secure wins in key battleground states to secure the presidency. As Harris campaigns through these swing states, it is evident that many voters remain unsure about her, feeling they still do not know enough about the candidate to confidently cast their vote.
One particular area of vulnerability for Harris is Michigan, home to the largest concentration of Arab American voters in the United States. Michigan played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 victory, which was secured by just over 150,000 votes. However, the Biden administration’s perceived inability to moderate Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon has significantly eroded support among the 300,000 Arab Americans in the state. As Biden’s vice president, Harris is also being held responsible for this perceived failure.
In Dearborn’s Haraz coffee shop, a Middle Eastern-style Cafe serving Turkish coffee and pomegranate juice, lifelong Democratic voters expressed a level of disillusionment that could severely impact Harris’s prospects. Samraa Luqman, a committed progressive, articulated her anger at the party, going as far as to say she would not only vote for Trump but actively encourage others to do so. “I believe there has to be accountability for all the lives lost,” Luqman said. “I do not forgive the Democrats for it, and I will not be scared into voting for them.”
Another patron, Chadi Abdulrazek, echoed Luqman’s sentiment. Although he could not have imagined voting for Trump a year ago, he admitted that he was now seriously considering it. “If I do want to punish the Democrats, specifically this administration, then I might have to consider that,” Abdulrazek said. He expressed how painful this prospect was for him, adding, “Every time I say that I feel like I have to go and throw up. But also, I think about my family, my people, in Palestine and in Lebanon.”
As election day approaches, Harris faces a tightening race and a skeptical electorate. Her challenge is not just to maintain support from the traditional Democratic base, but to find a way to overcome skepticism and rally those whose trust in the party has wavered. With crucial battleground states now up for grabs, the outcome remains uncertain, and Democrats can only hope that Harris’s message resonates before it is too late.
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