Who Will Be the Next Pope? An Unpredictable Conclave with Global Implications

The question of who will succeed Pope Francis is set to be one of the most consequential and unpredictable events for the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion baptized followers worldwide. The process, which involves the College of Cardinals gathering in the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope through a secretive conclave, remains shrouded in uncertainty for several reasons.

With around 80% of the cardinals appointed by Pope Francis himself, the College has a broad global representation—an unprecedented shift in the Church’s leadership. Notably, for the first time in history, fewer than half of the voting cardinals are European, signaling a significant geographical shift in the Church’s upper hierarchy. These appointments have been a mix of both progressive and traditionalist figures, making predictions about the next pope particularly challenging.

Speculation is rife about the possible candidates, with some pondering whether the cardinals might choose an African or Asian leader, or perhaps favor a seasoned Vatican insider. Among the names being discussed is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State and Pope Francis’s chief adviser. Having effectively acted as a deputy pope, Parolin is seen by some as a frontrunner, especially given his diplomatic experience and focus on a global outlook. However, critics note his stance against the legalization of same-sex marriage—calling Ireland’s 2015 referendum a “defeat for humanity”—which could complicate his chances.

Bookmakers may favor Parolin, but the old Italian saying remains relevant: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” Historically, some 213 of the 266 popes have been Italian, and although there has been no Italian pope for over 40 years, the Church’s move away from European dominance suggests a possible shift in future leadership.

As the conclave approaches, more names are expected to surface, but one thing is certain: the decision will have profound and lasting impacts on the direction of the Catholic Church and its global influence.