President Biden’s recent decision to deliver anti-personnel mines to Ukraine and permit the use of long-range missiles against Russian targets comes as the Russian military accelerates its territorial gains along the front lines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has seized nearly six times more territory in 2024 than in the previous year, pushing toward critical logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s unexpected offensive in Russia’s Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces successfully pushing back Ukrainian troops. Experts have labeled this operation a “strategic catastrophe,” particularly in light of Ukraine’s manpower shortages.
In the early months of the conflict, the front line shifted rapidly, but 2023 saw a stalemate with minimal territorial changes. However, ISW’s latest data reveals a stark contrast for 2024, noting that Russian forces have captured about 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year, compared to just 465 square kilometers in all of 2023.
Dr. Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King’s College London, warned that the eastern front for Ukraine could “collapse” if Russia’s advances continue unchecked. Significant gains were recorded between September and early November, particularly in the regions of Kupiansk and Kurakhove, which are vital for Ukrainian supply lines.
Despite some successes, Russian advances have come at a steep cost. An analysis by BBC Russian estimates that over 78,000 Russian troops have died since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with losses increasing significantly from September to November this year.
While Russian forces have made notable territorial gains, the pace of their advance remains inconsistent. Military analysts suggest that Ukrainian troops in the east are strategically withdrawing to conserve resources rather than facing an outright collapse.
As the conflict unfolds, Ukraine’s ability to respond to Russian advances remains uncertain, particularly with a potential shift in U.S. military support looming under a possible second Trump administration.
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