A high-tech factory in central Russia has become the birthplace of a new, lethal strategy aimed at undermining Ukraine’s defenses. By combining swarms of cheap foam decoys with a small number of deadly thermobaric drones, Russia is forcing Ukraine to expend valuable resources on air defense systems and critical infrastructure protection, according to sources familiar with the production process.
The plan, dubbed Operation False Target, leverages decoy drones to confuse Ukraine’s radar and electronic systems, making it nearly impossible to distinguish between harmless decoys and deadly warheads. This tactic has been designed to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, forcing them to waste expensive munitions on targets that may not be real threats.
A source with direct knowledge of Russia’s drone production, along with a Ukrainian electronics expert, revealed that decoys now account for more than half of the drones Russia is producing, with up to 75 percent of the new drones coming out of Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone. This facility, located in Tatarstan, has shifted focus from industrial production to military-grade drone manufacturing since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The factory produces a particularly destructive variant of the Shahed drone, armed with thermobaric warheads—devices designed to inflict catastrophic damage. These “vacuum bombs” create intense pressure and heat that penetrate even reinforced structures, suffocating victims and causing devastating injuries. The warheads are also packed with ball bearings to increase damage in the surrounding area. Ukrainian electronics expert Serhii Beskrestnov, known as “Flash,” who tracks these drones using a specially equipped van, estimates that thermobaric drones now account for 3 to 5 percent of Russia’s drone strikes.
The Alabuga zone, once an industrial hub aimed at attracting business investment, has transformed into a critical production center for drones, with about 40 decoy drones and 10 armed ones being manufactured daily. These drones have become a formidable weapon for Russia, particularly in the ongoing conflict over Kyiv. On one weekend in November, the Kyiv region spent 20 hours under air alert as drones buzzed overhead, and air defenses fired at targets in the sky.
While most drones are either shot down, crash, or are diverted by electronic jamming, the sheer numbers mean a handful of drones are still getting through, causing significant damage. In October alone, Russian forces launched nearly 1,900 drones—80 percent more than in August—demonstrating the increasing intensity of aerial assaults.
The decoy drones play a critical role in the success of this strategy. These unarmed drones are equipped with cameras to relay live-feed information back to Russian forces, allowing them to pinpoint Ukraine’s air defense systems. This information, once relayed, enables the thermobaric drones to hit their targets with devastating precision.
The combination of decoys and thermobaric warheads has proven to be a highly effective and cost-efficient weapon for Russia. Unarmed drones cost a fraction of the price of armed drones or air defense missiles, allowing Russia to deploy them in massive numbers without depleting its military resources. For Ukraine, the challenge of countering these drone swarms while protecting its infrastructure and civilians remains a daunting task.
As the conflict drags on, Russia’s use of drones is not just a matter of military strategy but also a psychological tactic, with the relentless buzzing of drones serving as a constant reminder of the threat overhead, further demoralizing both civilians and soldiers in Ukraine.
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